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Latest journal papers, newest on top

Managing food price volatility in a large open country: the case of wheat in India
Christophe Gouel, Madhur Gautam, Will J. Martin

Oxford Economic Papers (2016), gpv089

Published: 1/20/2016

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Full article
India has pursued an active food security policy for many years by using a combination of trade policy interventions, public distribution of food staples, and assistance to farmers through minimum support prices defended by public stocks. This approach has been quite successful in stabilizing staple food prices, but comes at a high cost, and with potential risks of unmanageable stock accumulation. Based on a rational expectations storage model representing the Indian wheat market and its relation to the rest of the world, we analyse the cost and welfare implications of this policy, and unpack the contribution of its various elements. To analyse alternative policies, we assume that social welfare includes an objective of price stabilization and assess optimal policies corresponding to this objective. We consider fully optimal policies under commitment as well as optimal simple rules, and show that adopting simple rules can achieve most of the gains from fully optimal policies.
Competition between food, feed, and (bio)fuel: A supply-side model based assessment at the European scale.
N. Ben Fradj, P.A. Jayet, P. Aghajanzadeh-Darzi

Land Use Policy 52 (2016) 195–205

Published: 1/13/2016

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This paper aims at estimating the perennial crop potential regarding uses like bio-fuels instead of food or feed ones. A perennial yearly harvested crop, namely the miscanthus, is integrated in the European agricultural supply AROPAj model. That requires the knowledge of its yield growth function, with a yield potential over time statistically adjusted to the yield of traditional crops. This allows us to estimate the cycle length, the average yearly yield and the discounted cost through the Faustmann rule adapted to the case of a perennial yearly harvested crop. The analysis covers a large part of the European Union and provides a land use change assessment estimated when the miscanthus yield potential varies. We show that the cellulosic biofuels compete with food and feed production as well, by the way of complex interactions and trades-off between marketed concentrates and on-farm consumed crops related to animal breeding. The “food, feed and fuels” analysis is widened by a spatial down scaling analysis applied to a series of French regions which differ in terms of farming systems. At the European scale, cereals and oil seeds areas are relatively more affected when miscanthus reaches high levels of performance. In spite of livestock inertia, there is a significant change in terms of feed share between on-farm consumed cereals and marketed concentrates. Regarding greenhouse gas emissions, an increasing miscanthus yield potential leads to a considerable decrease in N2O losses and to a slight abatement of CH4emissions.© 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
The European common agricultural policy
Johan Swinnen

The Routledge Handbook of the Economics of European Integration,

Published: 7/10/2015

Constraints to smallholder participation in high-value agriculture in West Africa
Johan Swinnen, Liesbeth Colen, Miet Maertens

Rebuilding West Africa’s Food Potential, A. Elbehri (ed.), FAO/IFAD.

Full article

Published: 7/10/2015

Food Security and Sociopolitical Stability in Eastern Europe and Central Asia
Johan Swinnen, Kristine Van Herck

Food Security and Sociopolitical Stability, Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 381–405

Published: 7/10/2015

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This chapter provides an overview of the past and expected developments of food security and socio-political stability within the region, and the potential role the region may play in meeting global food security and socio-political stability challenges, given their policies and institutional constraints. In particular, we discuss the impact of a series of policy initiatives triggered by increasing food prices in the most recent years as especially export restrictions on grains taken by Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan are found to have affected both the food-importing countries in the region as well as several countries in, for example, North Africa and the Middle East, which heavily rely on imports from these major grain-exporting countries.
Feeding the cities and greenhouse gas emissions: a new economic geography approach
Stéphane De Cara, Anne Fournier, Carl Gaigne

Published: 7/9/2015

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In this paper, we argue ’buying local’ does not necessarily reduces transport-related greenhouse gas emissions even if transport and production technologies, as well as natural endowment are homogeneous in space. We develop a model of rural-urban systems where the spatial distribution of food production within and between regions is endogenously determined. We exhibit cases where locating a significant share of the food production in the least-urbanized regions results in lower transport-related emissions than in configurations where all regions are self-sufficient (’pure local-food’). In addition, the optimal spatial allocation of food production does not exclude the possibility that some regions should rely solely on local production, provided their urban population sizes are neither too large nor too small.
Competition between farmed and wild fish: the French sea bass and sea bream markets
Esther Regnier, Basak Bayramoglu

Full article

Published: 7/9/2015

The effects of scale, space and time on the predictive accuracy of land use models
Jean-Sauveur Ay, Raja Chakir, Julie Le Gallo

Published: 7/9/2015

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The econometric literature about modeling land use choices is highly heterogeneous with respect to the scale of the data, and to the structure of the models in terms of the effects of space and time. This paper proposes a joint evaluation of each of these three elements by estimating a broad spectrum of individual and aggregate, spatial and aspatial, short and long run econometric models on the same detailed French dataset. Considering four land use classes (arable crops, pasture, forest, and urban), all the models are compared in terms of both in- and out-of-sample predictive accuracy. We argue that the aggregate scale allows to model more effectively the effect of space by using spatial econometric models. We show that modeling spatial autocorrelation allow to have very accurate predictions which can even outperform individual models when the appropriate predictors are used. We also found some strong interactions between the effects of scale, space and time which can be of major interest for applied researchers.
The Impact of Regional Trade Agreements on Trade in Agricultural Products
Jean Christophe Bureau, Sebastien Jean

OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers No. 65

Published: 7/9/2015

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Full article
Trade flows are significantly affected by the trade agreements both with respect to impacts on pre-existing trade flows, (intensive margin) and on new, previously non-existent trade flows (extensive margin). The effect of the Regional Trade Agreements on pre-existing trade flows are found to be significant with a mean elasticity of substitution at the product level of about 2 so that a 1% preferential margin increases trade by only 2% on average. Total bilateral exports are found to be increased by 18% on average for products benefiting from a preferential margin between 5 and 10%, and by 48% for products where the margin exceeds 10%. The effect of an RTA agreement on extensive margin is to increase the probability to export a given a product to a partner country by one percentage point on average. Furthermore preferential margins, as measured through their impact on tax-inclusive consumer prices, nearly double within eight years of entry into force rising from 4.7% to 8.9% on average.
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european logo This project has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement no. 290693

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