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diagnostics, future scenarios and guidance on policies for global food and nutrition security

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Food system drivers

Global diagnostics

Regional and country diagnostics

Price volatility

Future FNS

Scenario process

4 plausible FNS futures

What if...? FNS futures quantified

Policy framework

Policy recommendation

Country Reports

Scenario visualisation

Price volatility

Scenario toolbox 2050

Global diagnostics

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Food system outcomes and drivers

What are the connections between food and nutrition security (FNS) outcomes, price volatility, agriculture and socioeconomic drivers?

The FAO defined food and nutrition security as a situation “when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life” (FAO 2006). This definition of FNS highlights four dimensions of food security: food availability, access to food, the utilization of food, and the stability of these three dimensions.

FNS is clearly an individual-specific outcome, but many of its indicators and of its drivers (causes) are measured at macro level and can only serve as proxies for FNS (individual) outcomes. FNS outcomes are related to various time-scales: depending on their impact, the indicators for assessing FNS are measured over several days, months and years up to decades (left panel). This means that the drivers of FNS must also be mapped on both the short run (centre panel) and the long run (right panel).

Long-term and policy drivers of FNS 
Conceptual framework for the analysis of the determinants of food and nutrition security
Brief on a conceptual framework
Working paper Laborde et al.
Time-related individual FNS outcomes 
FNS indicators ranging from days to decades
Brief on indicators and drivers of FNS
Working paper Pangaribowo et al.
Short term drivers of FNS 
Conceptual framework on price volatility and its impact on food and nutrition security in the short term
Brief on indicators and drivers
Working paper Kalkuhl et al.
 Click on an image to enlarge it.  Click on the text to go directly to the page.
Drivers of FNS. Catalogue of long-term drivers and causes of FNS

How do the drivers in the food system and beyond drive food and nutrition security (FNS) in the long run? At the household level FNS is compounded out of two factors, food quantity and quality. Both factors depend on a set of drivers at the individual and household level, and at the macro level (Laborde et al. 2013). The catalogue of long-term drivers of FNS is presented below with a summary of the impact, diagnostics and future outlook of these drivers. The volatility of agricultural markets entails other, short-term drivers of FNS (Kalkuhl et al. 2013). These are explained in the accompanying brief.

  • 1. Individual & household drivers
  • 2. Market equilibrium drivers
Driver
Impact on FNS
Read more
 Income
Improves FNS, if income growth is matched by a better distribution of income
Access key readings and diagnostics 

Explaining the concepts

  • Headey, D., 2012. Turning Economic Growth into Nutrition-Sensitive Growth"

Data analysis

  • Laborde, Tokgoz, and Torero. "Long-Term Drivers of Food and Nutrition Security." FOODSECURE Working paper. LEI Wageningen UR, 2013

Outlook perspective

  • Income positions of the poorest are foreseen to worsen in coming decades, and middle classes expand

Diagnostics

Economic Performance

Cross-country comparison of indicators on
  • Gini index
  • GDP per capita
  • Economic opportunity of women
 Food prices

Improves FNS, if purchasing power improves with lower prices.

Weakens FNS, if household is a food producer in a lower price environment.

Access key readings and diagnostics 

Explaining the concepts

  • Swinnen, J. The Right Price of Food: Food Prices and Food Security. A reversal of perspectives

Data analysis

  • Torero et al. Price volatility – information and regulation to avoid extreme events

Outlook perspective

  • Food access will be determined by developments in food price and growth of household income

Diagnostics

 Sanitary conditions

Improves FNS: through reduced disease pressure and absorption of nutrients in the body, and labour productivity

Access key readings and diagnostics 

Explaining the concepts

  • Smith, L. C., and Haddad, L., 2000. Explaining Child Malnutrition in Developing Countries: a cross country analysis, IFPRI Research Monograph No. 111, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, D. C.

Data analysis

  • no analysis on this subject performed in FOODSECURE

Outlook perspective

  • no outlook perspectives on this subject performed in FOODSECURE

Diagnostics

Health Infrastructure Profile

Cross-country comparison of indicators on:

  • Health expenditures per capita
  • Sanitation
  • Water supply
  • Hospital beds
 Education

Improves FNS: better nutrition increases cognitive capacities and increases the returns to investments in education and schooling.

Access key readings and diagnostics 

Explaining the concepts

  • Hoddinott, John, John A Maluccio, Jere R Behrman, Rafael Flores, and Reynaldo Martorell. “Effect of a Nutrition Intervention during Early Childhood on Economic Productivity in Guatemalan Adults.” The Lancet 371, no. 9610 (February 2, 2008): 411–16.

Data analysis

  • no analysis on this subject performed in FOODSECURE Data analysis

Outlook perspective

  • Education and urbanisation are key factors that support income pathways for food security

Diagnostics

Innovation Profile

Cross-country comparison of indicators on:

Indicators:

  • Innovation system
  • Economic incentive regime
  • Education and skills
  • Information infrastructure
 Transaction and markets access costs

Improves FNS, if lower costs reduce price distortions.

Weakens FNS, as easier access to ultra-processed food increases risk of overnutrition and unbalanced diets.

Access key readings and diagnostics 

Explaining the concepts

  • Byerlee, Derek; De Janvry, Alain; Sadoulet, Elisabeth; Townsend, Robert; Klytchnikova, Irina. 2008. World development report 2008: agriculture for development. Washington, DC: World Bank Group

Data analysis

  • The modern value chains deliver easier access to processed food benefits but also create exposure to global markets. See: Haile et al. (2016) Analysis of Price Shock Transmission: Case of the Wheat-Bread Market Value Chain in Ethiopia

Outlook perspective

  • Global Panel (2017): The bulk of food consumed in LMIC now moves through formal markets. The food choice environment changes rapidly.

Diagnostics

not available

Driver
Impact on FNS
Read more
  Global vs domestic prices
Trade policy liberalization would improve FNS for consumers, and reduce FNS for producers. If terms of trade improves for a food net importer, FNS improves; undervalued exchange rate for a net food importer would reduce FNS
Access key readings and diagnostics 

Explaining the concepts

  • J. Swinnen “The Right Price of Food: Food Prices and Food Security. A reversal of perspectives”
  • K. Anderson. “Distortions to Agricultural Incentives : A Global Perspective, 1955-2007"

Data analysis

  • A.C. Disdier “Reforming EU trade policies towards more coherence with food security objectives"
  • M. Haile “Prices shocks at international markets have different impacts on producers and consumers in Ethiopia”.
  • A. Olper, D. Curzi, and J. Swinnen. “Trade Liberalization and Child Mortality: A Synthetic Control Method.”

Outlook perspective

  • Further trade liberalisation will press down consumer prices and push technology transfer but also entails risk for loss of farming and manufacturing activity

Diagnostics

not available

 Aggregate food demand
Population growth increases mouths to feed and reduces overall FNS. Income growth leads to changes in diets towards protein rich goods and improves overall FNS. Income growth leads to higher prices and lower food price elasticity which reduces FNS.
Access key readings and diagnostics 

Explaining the concepts

  • D. Laborde, Tokgoz, and Torero. “Long-Term Drivers of Food and Nutrition Security.”
  • Dijk, M. van, and G. Meijerink. “A Review of Global Food Security Scenario and Assessment Studies: Results, Gaps and Research Priorities.”

Data analysis

Outlook perspective

  • Assumptions on future population growth are major drivers of FNS outcomes

Diagnostics

Economic Performance

Cross-country comparison of indicators on
  • Gini index
  • GDP per capita
  • Economic opportunity of women
 Aggregate food supply

Lower food waste improves FNS; Increase in the overall amount of agricultural land will shift agricultural supply, reduce food prices, and ease the FNS constraint. Higher yields will shift agricultural supply, reduce food prices, and ease the FNS constraint.

Access key readings and diagnostics 

Explaining the concepts

  • Reducing food losses and waste save income and natural resources eases demand and prices: Rutten, M.
  • T. Fischer, D. Byerlee, and G.O Edmeades. “Crop Yields and Global Food Security: Will Yield Increase Continue to Feed the World?”

Data analysis

  • Land reserves are limited when conservation needs are taken into account: M. Mandryk, J. Doelman, E. Stehfest “Assessment of global land availability: land supply for agriculture”
  • Managerial and social innovations should accompany technological innovations in order to benefit FNS

Outlook perspective

  • Crop productivity growth is a major drivers of FNS outcomes
  • Trade-offs between food securiy and environmental protection require attention. The growth of land and labour productivity in agriculture is a key factor in future sustainability of food systems

Diagnostics

Agricultural Performance

  • Value added per worker in agriculture
  • Import share of agriculture
  • Food production per capita

Agricultural Potential

Indicators:

  • Length of growing period
  • Percentage without major soil constraints
  • Precipitation
 Governance and Institutions

Macroeconomic stability, public expenditure, and governance as well as quality of institutions are among the crucial “basic causes” of malnutrition and can improve FNS

Access key readings and diagnostics 

Explaining the concepts

  • Ecker and Breisinger, (2012)

Data analysis

  • Government-donor coordination in Burkina Faso and Ethiopia
  • Pieters, H. D. Curzi, A. Olper, J. Swinnen. “Effect of Democratic Reforms on Child Mortality: A Synthetic Control Analysis"

Outlook perspective

  • Governments’ role as as key facilitating continues to be recognised

Diagnostics

Political profile

Indicators:

  • Political stability and violence
  • Control of corruption
  • Democracy index
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european logo This project has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement no. 290693

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